RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — An area of low pressure, set to form a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast, is being watched by the National Hurricane Center for possible tropical (or subtropical) development early next week.
As of Saturday evening, odds for development are up to 50% within the next 48 hours, and 50% overall.
Even if the system does not become a full-fledged tropical system, it does mean that central North Carolina will likely experience heavy rain and gusty winds early next week.
For much of this past week, forecast guidance had not been in good agreement with this low pressure, where it will go, and therefore how much rain it will bring. However, by late Saturday, the forecast solutions were much more similar, indicating higher confidence.
The GFS (the Global Forecast System, sometimes called the American Model) has the low pressure moving into eastern North Carolina Monday night, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds.
The European Model (commonly called the Euro) brings the low onshore a little further south; near Wilmington. It appears to be a little slower; making "landfall" Tuesday morning, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. It is important to note that these models show rain potential and low position. The GFS resolves a slightly stronger low while the Euro has a slightly weaker low pressure.
Where the low ends up coming onshore will make a difference with how much rain we could see and where the tornado threat would be maximized. The general consensus for rainfall from the models is that most of our region has the possibility to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next week, with 2 to 3 inches possible from I-95 and east. Isolated higher amounts are also possible.
Remember to stay up to date with how this system develops and impacts our weather through the weekend on CBS 17.