RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the western Caribbean Sea, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later this week before weakening and bringing rain to North Carolina Friday.
The NHC has designated this area as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 as it does not quite have all the characteristics to be an official tropical system. The system will likely become Tropical Storm Helene today before entering the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and strengthening into a hurricane.
Forecast models take the system northwestward between the Yucatán Peninsula and the west coast of Cuba on Tuesday, then turning due north in the Gulf of Mexico. By Wednesday, a gradual turn to the northeast is expected, before a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday.
Helene is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, as very warm ocean temperatures and low upper-level wind shear will allow for intensification of the system.
The exact landfall point is unclear at this point, but most forecast guidance has the core of the storm coming ashore somewhere between Tampa and Pensacola.
Depending on the angle the storm takes on approach to Florida and as it moves inland, we could see tropical moisture move our way in North Carolina by Friday, but there remains a good bit of uncertainty regarding how much rain and leftover wind we could see.
In addition to rain in North Carolina Friday, we could also see gusts upwards of 30 MPH and a small tornado threat. There are expected to be tweaks to this forecast as we progress through the week. The good news is the center of the storm is expected to be about 400 miles from Raleigh and moving about 15 mph.
This means whatever is left of Helene will not have a major impact on our area, but Friday will be the day to stay weather aware across Central NC.
Stay with the CBS 17 Storm Team for the latest as we track this tropical system this week.
