RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — Severe weather can happen in an instant, but we can be prepared with advanced warning.
We know certain weather conditions lead to a better chance for severe weather, but something that developed back in December could have an influence on spring severe weather.
It's called La Nina: the cool phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation and developed in December. La Nina is when the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than average -- which then influences how the jet stream flows over the United States.
The jet stream plays a vital role in weather, and severe storms, across the United States.
With La Nina, the jet stream is a little farther north which keeps warm, moist air pushing in from the Gulf and Atlantic, but the cooler air is north of the jet stream. This contrast between warm and cool is favorable for storm formation.
According to research, when La Nina is in place during the spring there are more tornadoes and hailstorms mainly in the south. That increase also includes right here in North Carolina, although it is a smaller increase by comparison.
So is this going to have an impact on us this spring?
Forecasters with NOAA anticipate that La Nina will be weak and switch to a more neutral phase by the end of spring and the beginning of summer, so it may not have as much impact on our chance for severe weather.
We know all too well here in Central North Carolina however, if conditions are right: if we're warm enough, have enough instability, moisture and some form of lift like a strong cold front, severe storms are tornadoes are possible.